The impacts of high school industry certifications on intentions, college-going, and earnings

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of earning industry-recognized certifications (IRCs) in high school on downstream outcomes. IRCs are a form of alternative education credential issued by industry groups or corporations to individuals seeking to acquire knowledge or skills in a particular sector. This credential type has grown rapidly among high school students as school systems incorporate them into accountability systems and students respond to labor market demand for skills. Since IRCs are awarded on the basis of an objective passing score, students who just barely fail or barely pass are likely to differ only in their likelihood of earning a certification. I thus use regression discontinuity design to estimate the signaling effect of earning a certification on post-high-school intentions, postsecondary enrollment, and earnings. Conditional on first exam attempts, IRC earners are more likely to express their intent to attend a four-year-college and are just as likely to actually enroll—effects that operate through college readiness indicators and not career and technical education. However, within seven years following the first IRC attempt, students on the margin of passing earn no more than their counterparts. The results suggest that for marginal examinees, earning an IRC may represent a signal that boosts interest and enrollment in four-year college, but these effects do not translate into higher short-term earnings.